August Home Sales Dip to 3.98 Million as Mortgage Rates Hold Near 6.76%
National existing-home sales cooled to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 6.76%, per the newest data out of NAR and Freddie Mac. Here is what the latest national, Indiana, and Hamilton County numbers mean for local buyers and sellers, from Associate Broker Susan Roberts.
The market right now
Data as of mid-September 2026. Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, NAR Existing-Home Sales, Redfin, F.C. Tucker Market Watch.
The week's biggest housing news came from two sources that rarely agree this cleanly. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.76% for the week ending September 10, up from 6.71% the prior week and 6.35% a year earlier. And NAR's August Existing-Home Sales report, released the same day, showed sales declining 2.0% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million, while the national median price still rose 1.6% year over year to $429,100, marking 38 straight months of price gains.
The two headlines tell one story: rates are pressuring sales volume, but prices remain sticky on limited supply. Nationally, inventory rose to 1.62 million units, a 4.9-month supply, the highest in over a decade, and NAR's Housing Affordability Index actually improved to 104.7, up from 101.2 a year earlier. For Hamilton and Boone County buyers and sellers, the practical read is more nuanced than the national numbers suggest, because central Indiana keeps running hotter on price and thinner on supply than the country as a whole.
Sales ease, prices hold, and supply finally grows
August existing-home sales fell 2.0% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 1.2% year over year, per NAR. That is the kind of modest pullback economists expect when a 30-year rate near 6.76% meets a softening economy: qualified buyers stay in the game, marginal ones step back, and the market finds a slower, steadier rhythm.
Prices, however, kept climbing. The national median existing-home price hit $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Behind that spread between weaker sales and rising prices sits supply: 1.62 million homes for sale, a 4.9-month supply, the highest in more than a decade and up 3.2% from July. More supply plus steady prices means buyers are being asked to pay today's prices, but with more choice, more patience, and more room to negotiate than at any point since the early 2020s.
6.76% on the 30-year, with the Fed meeting this week
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.76% in the week ending September 10, 2026, per Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, unchanged in direction from the slow climb that has defined 2026. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.09%. Consumer daily trackers have been printing APRs near 6.73%, with Zillow's Indiana-specific rate reading near 6.99% as of early September.
The Federal Reserve meets September 15-16, and the June round of projections surprised markets by pointing upward rather than toward cuts. The decision itself gets the headlines, but the dot plot and the chair's press conference are what move the 10-year Treasury yield, and therefore mortgage rates, into the fall.
What this means for you: plan around a rate in the mid-to-high 6s and treat any dip as a bonus. A quarter-point move shifts a monthly payment by roughly 60 to 90 dollars on a typical Hamilton County mortgage in the $450,000 range. Rate certainty, negotiated price, and seller concessions matter more than waiting for a bottom that keeps not arriving.
Indiana outpaces the nation, and Hamilton County leads the metro
Indiana continues to appreciate faster than the rest of the country. Redfin's July reading put the state median sale price near $284,000, up 3.3% year over year, while the trailing six-month statewide median has run near $278,000 across roughly 36,000 closings. Indiana's All-Transactions House Price Index rose to about 539 in the second quarter, up nearly 5% year over year, per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Homes across the state are still pending in about 14 days on average.
In the Indianapolis metro, Redfin's median sale price landed near $259,870, up 2.3% year over year, with metro supply near 2.6 months and active inventory up roughly 18% from a year earlier. That supply picture is far thinner than the national 4.9 months, which is exactly why central Indiana prices keep pushing higher even as national sales cool.
Hamilton County remains the metro's premium market. F.C. Tucker's Market Watch puts the county's year-to-date median near $474,900, the highest of any county in the metro, with Carmel's three-month median near $550,000 per Redfin and Zionsville's recent six-month median around $755,000. Boone County's Zionsville continues to command the region's top price points, while value-focused buyers increasingly compare Whitestown's new construction along the I-65 corridor.
How to buy well with more supply and higher rates
Treat the 4.9-month supply as your opening
The national market now holds more inventory than it has in over a decade, and central Indiana is running well ahead of that trend with metro supply near 2.6 months and active listings up roughly 18% year over year. That means more showings, more comparison shopping, and a real chance to negotiate price, closing costs, and concessions.
Buy the payment, not the rate
At 6.76%, a $450,000 Hamilton County home with 20% down carries a principal-and-interest payment in the low $2,300s. Run the real math at today's number, then decide whether a temporary buydown, a smaller list price, or extra seller-paid closing help best fits your budget. A slightly higher rate can still make sense when the price and terms move in your favor.
Get pre-approved before you tour
Fresh listings arrive weekly across Hamilton and Boone County, and the homes that are priced well still move. A pre-approval tells you exactly what you can borrow and lets you write a serious offer the day the right home appears, rather than losing momentum to financing questions.
Look at new construction incentives
Builders across central Indiana are competing for buyers with rate buydowns, closing-cost credits, and upgraded standard finishes. If you value a low-maintenance warranty home, a new-build community can sometimes beat resale on total monthly cost at today's rates.
How to sell well into a balancing market
Price from day one
Buyers are rate-sensitive and comparing more options than they have in years. Homes that are priced competitively on day one generate more showings and more offers than homes that step down through the fall. The first two weeks on market are almost always your best leverage.
Lead with condition and updates
With supply rising, immaculate and updated homes consistently outsell tired ones. Focus on the buyers' highest-visibility items: fresh paint, clean and staged interiors, updated kitchens and baths, and strong curb appeal.
Plan for a balanced timeline
The sprint years are over. Days on market across the Indianapolis metro have stretched as buyers take more time to compare. That is a healthy market finding its rhythm, not a warning sign. Give yourself a realistic timeline and you will price and present with confidence.
Use concessions strategically
With rates near 6.76%, a closing-cost credit or a temporary rate buydown can be the difference between an accepted offer and a standoff. Structure concessions so your net proceeds stay protected while the buyer gets terms they can say yes to.
What to watch next for Hamilton and Boone County
September 16: The FOMC decision
The Federal Reserve's latest rate decision and updated projections arrive September 16, with the June round of projections having pointed higher than most buyers expected. The direction of the dot plot, not the decision itself, is what will set the tone for mortgage rates into the fall.
Early October: NAR's September sales report
The September existing-home sales report will show whether the August dip to a 3.98 million pace was a blip or a trend. Watch both the sales pace and the month-over-month supply reading, which is running at its highest level in over a decade.
Weekly Freddie Mac prints
Each Thursday's Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the cleanest read on rate momentum. After climbing from 6.35% a year ago to 6.76% today, buyers and sellers should treat current rates as the cost of doing business and plan accordingly.
Local days on market and price ticks
National headlines wash over Hamilton and Boone County differently. A mile apart in the county, inventory and days on market can look very different. Weekly local data, not monthly national averages, is what should drive your offer or list price.
Sources
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week ending September 10, 2026). NAR Existing-Home Sales report for August 2026 (released September 10, 2026). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis All-Transactions House Price Index for Indiana (Q2 2026). Redfin Indiana and Indianapolis metro market data (mid-2026). F.C. Tucker Company Market Watch. MIBOR. EverythingHamiltonCounty.com Market Report and prior September 2026 market updates.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, lending, or investment advice. Consult a licensed mortgage professional for personalized rate quotes and a real estate professional for market-specific guidance.
Turn This Week's Numbers Into Your Next Move
Whether you are buying into deeper inventory or selling into a market that rewards good pricing, a quick conversation can give you clarity. No pressure, just straight talk from a 25-year veteran of Hamilton and Boone County real estate.
